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# Unit 11: Fire Behavior Prediction Systems

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Systems Pt. 1   ::   Worksheet & Field Guide   ::   Practice   ::   Systems Pt. 2   ::   Estimating   ::  Exercises

## Exercise 1

### Willow creek fire problem

Using the fire situation data below, the topographic map, and the fire behavior prediction worksheet, complete the items below:
Situation: A small fire is reported in the Willow Creek drainage at 1130 on October 23. See the X on map in section 22. Initial attack with handline crews and a small tractor dozer is made at 1230. The area north of Willow Creek road is generally roadless and continuous brush. Fuels are mixed brush species approximately 4 feet tall with leaves and litter on the ground. The brush is becoming dormant, very dry and flammable. This afternoon's weather forecast for this area is mostly clear and warm with temperatures to 85 degrees, relative humidity down to 21%, and winds NW 10 - 12 mph (20 foot).

1. Determine the input values for midafternoon calculations on October 23.
Fuel model?
3. Live fuel moisture?
4. Midflame windspeed?
5. Wind direction?
6. Slope precent?
7. Aspect?
8. Calculate fire behavior output values for midafternoon (1530).
9. Flame length (head of fire)?
10. Probability of ignition?
11. What would the total forward spread distance be between 1230 and 1430 if the initial attack forces are ineffective?
12. Discuss the potential for extreme fire behavior occurring at the head of the fire.
Spotting?
13. Firewhirls?
14. Other?
15. What limitations to control forces do you anticipate during the afternoon?